As a gambler my favorite game of the entire year is the Super Bowl. You can bet on literally anything. If you can imagine it you can bet on it. So I decided to put together a list of my top bets for the Super Bowl. Some of them are stat based, most of them are just a shot in the dark. Nothing better. It’s going to be a lot so let’s go ahead and get into it. All the odds come from BetOnline.

Coin Toss

“Tails never fails”. That is incredibly dumb and if you use that strategy for coin flips I hate you. Tails fails literally 50% of the time. It fails so much. I will pick heads every time just to spite you and everyone else. Heads at -105.

Reba’s Outfit

Reba McEntire will be performing the National Anthem this year. I have never had any luck betting on the total time of the National Anthem, but there was one bet that jumped out at me. Reba’s outfit to have sequins or tassels at -145. Just go search her name on google and go to images. Lady loves sequins. I mean in like 70% of her photos she’s got sequins all over the place. It’s the Super Bowl she’s going to have that outfit glistening.

Vintage Video

If there is one thing that broadcasts love it is showing old videos during big games. If there is one old video that they love more than any other it is the video of The Catch, thrown by Joe Montana. He was a 49er, the 49ers are in the Super Bowl. Now, I realize that play happened in the NFC Championship, but Joe Montana won 4 Super Bowls and 3 Super Bowl MVPs. Even if it isn’t The Catch there are plenty of old videos out there they can show. I love Joe Montana to be first shown in a vintage video at +140.

Taylor Swift

This is basically Taylor Swift’s game and we are all just lucky to be able to watch it, right? I think it is probably a little overblown how many times she gets shown during Chief’s games. But she will most certainly get shown a couple of times. When will she definitely get shown on the broadcast? When Travis Kelce does something good. What do you do when somebody does something good? You high five of course. Taylor Swift to be shown giving a double high five at -100, book it.

And while we are on the topic of Taylor Swift, she just simply has to appear in a Super Bowl commercial, right? I mean how could she not. This seems like free money to me. Taylor Swift to appear in a Super Bowl commercial at +200. The fact that this is plus money makes me think maybe the books know something I don’t, but I’m willing to take that risk. It just has to happen, right? Right?

Last Play Of The Game

Alright, now we will move into the actual game prop bets. In the last 10 Super Bowl games, 4 have ended with a quarterback kneel down, 6 have ended with any other play. It’s just a gamble basically, which all of this. If the winning team has the ball last you’ll more than likely see a kneel down. If the losing team has the ball last you probably won’t see a kneel down. Since kneel downs are boring and I am expecting an exciting game, I will be taking the last play of the game not to be a kneel down at +155.

Justin Watson Receptions

It has been well documented that the Chiefs have had trouble at receiver this year. It is also obvious that Mahomes will be looking to get the ball to Kelce. If I know that then I feel very confident the 49ers know that. Now I would also assume that all the other teams have known that throughout the years and they haven’t always done a good job of stopping that duo. Still, I think there will be enough plays in this game that Mahomes will have to look elsewhere. There will likely be some plays that are drawn up using Kelce as a decoy.

That means somebody has to step up. I think that person will be Justin Watson. I know he is a 3rd option, sometimes maybe even a 4th, but he has had 2 targets in two of the three post season games. Not great, but we just need him to get those 2 targets and catch both of them. But I think he gets more in the range of 4-5 targets. Justin Watson over 1.5 receptions at +100.

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards

Mahomes runs more in the playoffs. I’ve always heard that. I don’t know how true that is and I didn’t take the time to do that much research to find out. I did do a little research though. Mahomes has been to 3 Super Bowls in his career. He has gone over this number in all 3 of them. Can’t get any better than that if he tried. Patrick Mahomes over 27.5 rushing yards at -120.

Game Tied After 0-0

I looked back at the last several Super Bowls and this one is about 50-50. Crazy right. But I’m expecting a close game in this one. If I had to guess this game will be tied a couple of times. And I think the first one will be 7-7. Game to be tied after 0-0, yes, at -140.

Length Of First Touchdown

In the last 10 Super Bowls only 3 of the first touchdowns scored were from 10 yards or more. Not great for this pick. But over here we only pay attention to stats when they back us up. So screw that stat and I’m mad at myself for even taking the time to look it up. You know what I do like? Every first touchdown for the Chiefs in this postseason has been from over 10 yards. 2 of those 3 were the first score by either team. The 49ers are 1-1 this post season for their first touchdown of the game being over 10 yards. The one over 10 yards was the first touchdown of the game. The game that their first touchdown wasn’t over 10 yards? The Lions scored first from 42 yards outs. Long touchdowns. I love it. Length of first touchdown over 9.5 yards at -110.

Travis Kelce ATTS

Look, story lines rule the world. Do you really think Travis Kelce isn’t going to score in this game? If you do, you sir, or madam, are an idiot. Did I justify my Justin Watson over receptions pick by saying that I think the 49ers will be trying to limit Kelce? Yes I did. Doesn’t matter. He will score and that will be a great opportunity for us to get the Taylor Swift double high five prop. Travis Kelce ATTS at -120.

MVP

This is the only bet that I anticipate losing. And that is only because I will be picking two players. Look quarterbacks win MVP awards. It’s just a fact of life. But they don’t pay anything because they are heavy favorites. So I don’t bet on quarterbacks to win MVP because I want to win more money. Now, you might say, “but if the quarterback does win MVP then your non quarterback pick wins no money, so in that case the quarterbacks do win more money than your pick”. And to you I say, shut up nerd.

If the 49ers win this game I think there is a reasonable chance that Christian McCaffery wins MVP. Death, taxes, McCaffery scoring a touchdown in a football game. You can bank on those things. He’s -335 to score. That is insane. He is +150 to score TWICE. That is bananas. He gets so many touches both running and receiving that he could very well win this MVP. He’s been known to throw the ball on occasion too, and teams in the Super Bowl are known to throw out a trick play or two. The possibilities are endless. Christian McCaffery MVP at +450.

I’ll also be taking a player from the Chiefs. And I already told you that I don’t take quarterbacks. I also told you that story lines rule the world. Do I think this will happen? Probably not. But I would not be blown away if it did. Look, if Kelce scores 2 touchdowns, the guy who threw them would probably still get MVP. I get it. But would the NFL love for Kelce to get the MVP if that were a possibility? Yeah, I think they would. And I’ll feel like a genius if he does. Travis Kelce MVP +700.

Exact Score

I’m not a math guy. But I’m pretty sure there are endless possibilities to what the final score of this game could be. But man, those exact score odds sure are juicy. And I love juicy odds. I might even throw in a couple more of these before kickoff just because they are so good. But as of now, my pick for the exact score is 49ers 24, Chiefs 20, at +10000. Look at that number. +10000. That number is so big. I can barely think of a bigger number. And how about there has never been a Super Bowl with a score of 24-20. It’s such a common score. So why not this one? It could happen. If it does I will never let anyone hear the end of it. And if you are paying attention, this pick gives away the next one which is…

49ers -2

Yep. I am taking the 49ers to cover. I get it. It is hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes, especially as an underdog. But I think it is very easy to get caught up in all of that and forget that for the majority of the year everybody thought the 49ers were by far the best team in football. They are still very good. They are loaded. And it reminds me of something that happens in college football often. A team will be favored but everybody says the underdog is definitely going to win. And then the favorite ends up winning right in everybody’s stupid faces. It, sadly, happened in the Rose Bowl with Alabama and Michigan. It happened with Florida St and Louisville. Kansas St and Texas. Utah and somebody basically every year. We like to forget that the favorite is the favorite for a reason. 49ers -2.

Good Luck To All

Those are my top bets for the Super Bowl. I unrealistically expect to go 14-1. And that is only because two guys can’t win MVP. I could not be more excited for this game, but it also sucks because this means football is over. So we have to win money while we can. If you are looking to get into basketball season you can check out my thoughts on Alabama’s odds here. And I would love to hear your picks for the Super Bowl as well. I’m very open to adding on if you’ve got some good plays. Let me know in the comments or over on Twitter/X here. If you use any of these picks and win money you have to follow me. Those are the rules. It’s all ask. Thanks for reading and good luck in the Super Bowl! Make sure to enjoy it while it’s here.